Week in Review

The Dow hit 49,000 as the 'Goldilocks' narrative met a cooling labor market.

US markets concluded the week of January 12-16, 2026, with a sharp divergence. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) crossed the historic 49,000 threshold for the first time, the S&P 500 (GSPC) retreated from its 7,000 milestone test. Investors balanced a cooling labor market against the lowest inflation print in five years, creating a complex backdrop for the start of Q4 earnings season.

The Scorecard

Equities

  • S&P 500: -0.06% (Friday) → 6,940.01
  • Nasdaq Composite: -2.0% (Weekly)
  • Russell 2000: Outperformed for 11 straight sessions

Rates & Credit

  • 10Y Yield: +5bps → 4.22%
  • 2Y Yield: Markets pricing fewer than two cuts in 2026

Other

  • VIX: Volatile sentiment regime
  • Gold: $4,595/oz
  • Silver: $90/oz (+12% weekly gain)
  • Oil (WTI): $59.40 (+0.4% Friday)

Day by Day

  • Monday - Tuesday: Markets tested psychological levels at 7,000 for the SPX and 49,000 for the Dow amid low-volume anticipation.
  • Wednesday: CPI data showed headline inflation at 2.7%, the lowest since 2021, providing a temporary boost to rate-sensitive sectors.
  • Thursday: Employment data missed expectations with only 50,000 jobs added, sparking concerns over a cooling labor market.
  • Friday: A mixed earnings start saw PNC Financial ($PNC) surge 4% while Regions Financial ($RF) fell 2.6% on a guidance miss.

What Worked

Defensive rotation and value-oriented cyclicals led the charge as the tech-heavy Nasdaq struggled.

  • Small Caps: The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed large caps for 11 straight sessions, benefiting from a rotation out of overextended mega-caps.
  • Precious Metals: Silver surged 12% for the week to $90/oz, while Gold reached $4,595 as investors sought inflation-resistant hedges.
  • Regional Banks: Strong results from PNC Financial ($PNC) pushed the stock to a 4-year high, highlighting resilience in the financial sector.

What Didn't Work

High-growth and regulatory-sensitive assets faced significant headwinds throughout the week.

  • Technology: The Nasdaq fell 2% for the week as investors locked in profits following a historic run, despite strong results from Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM).
  • Crypto: Bitcoin fell to $95,400 as the Clarity Act stalled in Washington, denting the 'regulatory tailwind' narrative.

Week Ahead Setup

Markets enter next week with a clear split between the resilient Dow and a consolidating Nasdaq. Positioning remains elevated in small caps after their 11-day winning streak.

Key Catalysts

  • Q4 Earnings acceleration (Big Tech and Industrials)
  • Fed Speaker circuit (Assessing the 50k jobs print)
  • Geopolitical developments in Iran affecting Oil volatility

Levels to Watch

The 7,000 level on the S&P 500 remains the primary overhead resistance. Support is monitored at the 6,850 level, while the Dow's ability to hold 49,000 will be a key barometer for value sentiment.